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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 19

2016-10-02 22:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 022038 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 After temporarily losing some of its organization this morning, Matthew has become a little more impressive in its appearance. The eye, while not quite cleared out on visible imagery, has become more distinct during the day and the overall cloud pattern has become a bit more symmetric. Consistent with these changes, observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that some strengthening has taken place. The advisory intensity is set to 125 kt based on a blend of flight-level winds, SFMR-observed surface winds, and eyewall dropsonde data from the aircraft. Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Matthew should remain low or at most moderate at least until the cyclone moves near the Bahamas, which would imply little decrease in intensity. However, interactions with land should cause some weakening during the next couple of days. Aside from that, some fluctuations in strength could occur due to eyewall replacements. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. Earlier today, the hurricane meandered westward for several hours, but recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the motion is northwestward, albeit slowly, at around 4 kt. The track forecast reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory package. Matthew is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level high pressure area for the next several days. Later in the forecast period, a ridge building slightly to the north of the tropical cyclone could induce a turn to the left. In general, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with the exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an outlier. The official track forecast is along essentially the same trajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before. This is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus. Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.6N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 74.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.7N 74.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 23.6N 75.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 26.8N 76.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 30.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-02 22:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.6, -74.8 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 19

2016-10-02 22:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 022037 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 ...POWERFUL MATTHEW MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 74.8W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 74.8 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane into Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, in the central Caribbean, recently reported a wind gust to 70 mph (112 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches of southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the Dominican republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over western Jamaica. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over northern Colombia through Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 19

2016-10-02 22:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 022037 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN... GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 74.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 74.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 74.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 74.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 74.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.6N 75.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.8N 76.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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