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Tag: matthew

Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-02 19:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER AGAIN... ...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.3, -74.6 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Tags: summary matthew hurricane

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 18

2016-10-02 16:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 021456 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 The eye of Matthew has become obscured on visible satellite images, which is often an indication of weakening. Microwave images showed a distinct dry slot over the southwestern and western portions of the circulation. Also there has been a persistent, but inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the northeastern eyewall, the strongest part of the circulation, and found that the winds had decreased somewhat from earlier this morning. The intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory. The vertical shear is not forecast to become much stronger while Matthew is in the Caribbean, so the hurricane should remain near category 4 status for the next 36-48 hours. Once Matthew moves into the Atlantic, some increase in shear along with a decrease in oceanic heat content should result in a little weakening. However, there is significant uncertainty in the 3-5 day forecast intensities. After a northwestward motion, the center has meandered westward over the past few hours. Matthew is expected to turn northward and move between a mid-level ridge to the east and a weak trough over the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Later in the forecast period, the global models show a slight building of a ridge to the northeast of Matthew which would induce a turn toward the left in 3-5 days. The timing and magnitude of this turn is still uncertain however. Looking at the better-performing models, the track guidance suite is bracketed by the GFS model on the left and the HWRF model on the right. The official forecast is slightly west of the multi-model consensus and very similar to the previous NHC track. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.0N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.9N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.1N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.7N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.5N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 23.2N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 26.5N 76.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 29.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2016-10-02 16:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 021455 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 8(23) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 8(24) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 6(24) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 5(21) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 9(38) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 23(45) 6(51) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 4(26) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 16(44) 3(47) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 3(23) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 50(57) 13(70) 2(72) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 11(40) 1(41) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) 1(23) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 53(59) 15(74) 2(76) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 12(41) 2(43) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 41(63) 5(68) 1(69) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 4(33) X(33) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 1(17) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 18(31) 2(33) 1(34) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 16(23) 5(28) 1(29) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 36(70) 12(82) 1(83) X(83) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 16(54) X(54) 1(55) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 11(31) X(31) X(31) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 2 13(15) 22(37) 6(43) 2(45) X(45) 1(46) KINGSTON 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 2 30(32) 48(80) 9(89) 1(90) 1(91) X(91) LES CAYES 50 X 1( 1) 36(37) 19(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 14(14) 17(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 4( 6) 30(36) 15(51) 5(56) 1(57) X(57) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 8(20) X(20) 1(21) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-02 16:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2016 14:55:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2016 14:49:35 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-02 16:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MEANDERING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.0, -74.6 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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