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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2016-10-02 04:52:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 020252 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 11(29) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 23(33) 10(43) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 19(34) 7(41) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 20(61) 5(66) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) 4(36) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 2(19) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 25(67) 5(72) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20(35) 6(41) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 3(21) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 48(57) 11(68) 2(70) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 8(33) 1(34) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 26(34) 6(40) 1(41) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 6(27) 3(30) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 37(49) 29(78) 3(81) X(81) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 32(48) 2(50) X(50) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 2(30) X(30) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGSTON 34 1 6( 7) 16(23) 13(36) 5(41) 1(42) X(42) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 2 12(14) 49(63) 22(85) 7(92) X(92) X(92) LES CAYES 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 35(51) 12(63) X(63) 1(64) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 10(41) X(41) 1(42) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 4( 5) 24(29) 28(57) 10(67) 1(68) 1(69) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 2 4( 6) 12(18) 10(28) 6(34) X(34) 1(35) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 14(25) 1(26) 1(27) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-02 04:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...150-MPH MATTHEW FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.8, -73.6 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 16

2016-10-02 04:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 020252 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...150-MPH MATTHEW FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 73.6W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of the Bahamas on Sunday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 73.6 West. Matthew began to move toward the north-northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach these areas by late Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 16

2016-10-02 04:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 020251 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM EAST OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY PROVINCE TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 73.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 60SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 73.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.2N 73.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 74.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N 74.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 74.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 73.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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