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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-01 19:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POWERFUL MATTHEW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.2, -73.4 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-10-01 17:04:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2016 14:51:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2016 15:04:34 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2016-10-01 16:51:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 011451 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 17(34) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 15(49) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 27(39) 11(50) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 7(24) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 32(58) 8(66) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 6(35) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 30(49) 9(58) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 6(28) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 15(44) 3(47) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) 2(23) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 28(31) 11(42) 4(46) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 48(73) 6(79) 1(80) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 6(48) 1(49) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) X(29) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 19(43) 2(45) 1(46) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 29(55) 17(72) 1(73) 1(74) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 18(42) 1(43) 1(44) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 1(25) X(25) LES CAYES 34 1 3( 4) 19(23) 27(50) 17(67) 1(68) 1(69) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 16(28) 2(30) X(30) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 16(33) 2(35) 1(36) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 7(18) 1(19) 1(20) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-01 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MATTHEW REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.4, -73.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 14
2016-10-01 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...MATTHEW REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 73.4W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas. The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for that country. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of eastern Cuba later today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west- northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday and toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft was 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Barranquilla. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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