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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 14

2016-10-01 16:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 011449 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THAT COUNTRY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 73.4W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 60SE 50SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 73.4W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N 73.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 70SE 50SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 74.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 60SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 65SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.1N 75.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 75.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 73.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-01 13:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2016 11:58:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2016 09:04:37 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-01 13:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.4, -73.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 13A

2016-10-01 13:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011157 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 73.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 73.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move away from the Guajira Peninsula this morning, move across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Colombia for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, and eastern Cuba during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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