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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-10-01 10:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010847 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 Matthew has changed little in organization since the past advisory, with a small eye surrounded by a central dense overcast featuring cloud tops colder than -80C. The eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting at least that the hurricane is no longer intensifying. In addition, the raw intensity estimates from the CIMSS ADT technique are slightly lower than they were six hours ago. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to 135 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to reach Matthew near 1200 UTC. The initial motion is now 270/6. Matthew remains south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more divergent after 72 hours. The GFS shows a turn toward the north-northwest, which brings the center closer to the northwestern Bahamas and Florida. This model is near the western edge of the guidance envelope. The ECMWF is near the eastern edge of the guidance envelope and shows the center east of the Bahamas by 120 hours. Adding to the uncertainty is the eastward shift of the Canadian model since its previous run. Given the uncertainty, the 96 and 120 hour forecast points are changed only slightly from the previous forecast. This part of the forecast track lies to the east of the GFS, but to the west of the Canadian, ECMWF, and NAVGEM models. It is also a little to the west of the various consensus models. Matthew should experience significant shear for the next 24 hours or so, as water vapor imagery shows westerly flow blowing into the hurricane underneath the impressive outflow pattern. This should cause some weakening. After that time, the dynamical models suggest the shear should decrease, which should allow Matthew to at least maintain its intensity. The new intensity forecast shows a slightly weaker intensity than the previous advisory through 72 hours based mainly on current trends. Subsequently, the hurricane is likely to interact with the land masses of Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola, leading to some weakening and disruption of the structure. Between this and uncertainty about how much shear Matthew will encounter north of Cuba, the new forecast shows only modest strengthening after Matthew reaches the Atlantic north of Cuba. There is also the possibility of fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles at any time during the forecast period. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 13.3N 72.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.3N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.8N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 14.9N 75.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 16.2N 75.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.5N 76.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 23.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-10-01 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 010846 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 10 3(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 17(28) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 17(44) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 12(45) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 33(48) 11(59) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 6(28) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 12(50) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) 5(38) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 18(44) 4(48) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 2(21) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 47(59) 10(69) 2(71) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 9(37) 1(38) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) 1(21) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 32(50) 6(56) 1(57) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) 1(27) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 32(43) 32(75) 3(78) 1(79) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 32(47) 4(51) X(51) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29) X(29) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 19(30) 24(54) 3(57) 1(58) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 16(26) 4(30) 1(31) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 1(17) 1(18) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-01 10:45:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MATTHEW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.3, -72.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 13
2016-10-01 10:45:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010845 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...MATTHEW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 72.8W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 72.8 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move away from the Guajira Peninsula this morning, move across the central Caribbean Sea today, and be approaching Jamaica late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Colombia for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, and eastern Cuba during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-10-01 10:45:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010845 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 72.8W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 60SE 50SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 72.8W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 72.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.3N 73.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 80SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.8N 74.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.9N 75.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.2N 75.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 72.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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