je.st

Home › matthew

Tag: matthew

Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-01 07:38:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2016 05:38:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Oct 2016 03:04:34 GMT

Tags: graphics matthew hurricane hurricane graphics

Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-01 07:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MATTHEW CONTINUES AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.3, -72.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Tags: summary matthew hurricane at4al142016

Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 12A

2016-10-01 07:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010536 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...MATTHEW CONTINUES AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 72.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 72.5 West. Matthew is moving just south of due west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move away from the Guajira Peninsula tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be approaching Jamaica late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Colombia for the remainder of tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number public advisory matthew

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 12

2016-10-01 04:59:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010259 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations. Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since 2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007. Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of Cuba. It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid strengthening of Matthew. Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic. In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 13.3N 72.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 13.3N 73.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 13.7N 74.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 14.6N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 76.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.1N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion matthew forecast