je.st

Home › matthew

Tag: matthew

Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2016-10-01 04:58:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 010258 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 19 3(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 16(28) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 16(46) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 13(49) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 38(48) 12(60) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 6(30) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 12(49) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 4(33) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 25(50) 3(53) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 2(26) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 43(52) 14(66) 2(68) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 12(32) 1(33) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 39(59) 7(66) 1(67) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 6(35) 1(36) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 36(45) 35(80) 5(85) X(85) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 37(52) 5(57) X(57) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 4(35) X(35) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 23(45) 5(50) 1(51) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 1(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 3(16) X(16) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number speed wind matthew

Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-01 04:57:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.3, -72.3 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Tags: summary matthew hurricane

Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 12

2016-10-01 04:57:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010257 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 ...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 72.3W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 72.3 West. Matthew is moving just south of due west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be approaching Jamaica late Sunday. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance aircraft was 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Colombia overnight. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number public advisory matthew

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 12

2016-10-01 04:57:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010257 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 72.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT.......180NE 60SE 50SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 72.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.3N 73.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 80SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 74.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 75.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.0N 76.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.1N 76.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number advisory matthew forecast