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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-01 01:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW WITH 150 MPH WINDS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.5, -72.0 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 11A
2016-10-01 01:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302342 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW WITH 150 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 72.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.90 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. Matthew is moving south of due west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be near Jamaica late on Sunday. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) primarily to the north of the center. The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-09-30 23:07:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2016 20:56:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2016 21:04:36 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-09-30 22:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302051 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Matthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate today. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a peak SFMR wind of 116 kt and flight-level winds of 121 kt. A recent dropsonde from the aircraft indicated that surface winds are around 120 kt. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt, an increase of 55 kt in the last 24 hours. The latest pressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since this time yesterday. Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours or so, and the NHC forecast reflects that possibility, showing 125 kt at that time. Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance thus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible this could be conservative. Since Matthew has now become a major hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would lead to some fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After 12 hours, a gradual weakening is shown, following the trend of, but above nearly all of the intensity guidance. Land interaction with Cuba should lead to additional weakening by day 4, but Matthew is expected to remain a strong hurricane through the forecast period. The initial motion is still toward the west-southwest, but the forward speed has slowed a bit, to around 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed, with Matthew expected to turn westward by 12 hours and then gradually turn toward the north in the next 3 to 4 days as the cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The track model guidance is in slightly better agreement this cycle through 3 days, although the ECMWF remains right of and slower than the rest of the guidance at days 4 and 5. The GFS, HWRF, and COAMPS-TC are faster and to the left late in the period, although the GFS has trended slower this cycle. The new NHC track has again been adjusted a little to the left through 72 hours given the initial position and motion, and after that time is along the previous official forecast but slower, following the slower trend in the guidance this cycle. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model consensus at days 4 and 5. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 13.5N 71.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.3N 72.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 13.5N 73.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.2N 75.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.2N 76.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-09-30 22:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.5, -71.6 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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