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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 11
2016-09-30 22:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302049 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 ...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwestern coast of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 71.6 West. Matthew is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula this tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be near Jamaica on Sunday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible Saturday and Sunday. Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-09-30 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 302048 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 70SE 50SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 80SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.5N 73.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 74.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.2N 76.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-09-30 22:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 302048 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 53 4(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) PT GALLINAS 50 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PT GALLINAS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CURACAO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 16(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 15(40) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 14(51) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 15(44) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 8(33) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 26(40) 4(44) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 34(38) 22(60) 3(63) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 2(30) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 36(45) 11(56) 1(57) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 10(29) 1(30) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 45(67) 8(75) 1(76) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 8(46) X(46) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 5(25) X(25) LES CAYES 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 27(42) 7(49) 1(50) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 14(20) 6(26) 1(27) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 4(20) 1(21) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-09-30 19:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2016 17:34:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2016 15:05:34 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-09-30 19:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE JUST NORTH OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.6, -71.3 with movement WSW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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