je.st
news
Tag: ian
Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-13 04:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130242 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016 Ian remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the strongest convection displaced to the northeast and east of the center. However, moderate convection has recently developed over and just north of the center due to the vertical wind shear's backing from a southwesterly to southerly direction. Data from a recent partial ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the 34-kt wind field has expanded to at least 200 nmi in the northeastern quadrant, and that peak winds have also increased to more than 35 kt. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and an average of these values yields an advisory intensity of 40 kt. Ian has maintained a steady motion of 330/11 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on the storm continuing to move north-northwestward through a break in the Bermuda-Azores High for the next 24 hours, followed by a turn to the north at 36-48 hours. After that, Ian is expected to gradually accelerate as the cyclone gets captured by a strong mid-latitude shortwave trough. The new official forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus, and the multi-model consensus TVCN. The vertical shear is forecast to decrease to 15-20 kt in 36 to 48 hours when an upper-level low, currently located about 400 nmi northwest of the cyclone, is forecast by the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models to move over and become colocated with Ian's low-level center. The combination of decreasing vertical wind shear and some infusion of baroclinic energy associated with this complex interaction is expected to produce at least some slight strengthening by days 2-3. Around 120 hours, Ian is forecast to interact with a frontal zone over the north Atlantic and be transformed into an extratropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 23.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 24.9N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 26.9N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 29.4N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 31.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 38.0N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 48.0N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 56.5N 25.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
ian
Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-09-13 04:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 130242 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-13 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 12 the center of IAN was located near 23.5, -51.5 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
ian
tropical
Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 3
2016-09-13 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016 ...IAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 51.5W ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 51.5 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the north on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km), mainly to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-09-13 04:41:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130241 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0300 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 51.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 51.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.9N 52.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.9N 53.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.4N 54.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.8N 54.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 49.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 30SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 48.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 56.5N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
ian
advisory
Sites : [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] next »