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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 7A
2016-05-29 13:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 291154 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 800 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 ...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 79.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 79.6 West. Bonnie is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move onshore near the south-central coast of South Carolina this morning. A slow northeastward motion near the coast of northeastern South Carolina is expected by tonight and on Monday. Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, followed by slow weakening on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches from central and eastern South Carolina to the Georgia border, and 1 to 3 inches farther north across southeastern North Carolina. Heavy rain is expected to develop well north of Bonnie's main circulation into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast with total accumulations of 1 to 2 inches through Monday and isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches. WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical-storm force are possible along the south-central coast of South Carolina today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible along portions of the south-central coast of South Carolina today. SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-05-29 10:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 290853 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Shortly after Bonnie reached its peak intensity of 40 kt, water vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds indicate that a surge of 40-60 kt upper-level winds passed over the center of the cyclone, which stripped away all of the associated deep convection. In addition, an intrusion of dry air has inhibited the redevelopment of significant deep convection near the center. Based on the erosion of the convective pattern, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. Radar and satellite imagery suggest that Bonnie is now moving due north or 360/07 kt. Bonnie has become a more shallow tropical cyclone due to the loss of all deep convection, and the system is expected to be steered generally northward around the western periphery of a low-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so. This should bring the center of Bonnie near or just inland of the South Carolina coast this afternoon or tonight. After that, Bonnie is expected to move slowly northeastward around the northern side of the Bermuda-Azores High and emerge out over the Atlantic by 36 to 48 hours, and continue moving northeastward or east-northeastward through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks. Continued strong southerly vertical wind shear, along with dry air in the mid- and upper-levels and proximity to land, should prevent any significant restrengthening from occurring. However, there could be intermittent bursts of convection near the center of Bonnie, keeping the cyclone as a tropical storm until landfall occurs later today. By 48 hours and beyond, environmental conditions worsen, and Bonnie is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by 72 hours, if not sooner. The primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which is already occurring over much of South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and portions of southeastern North Carolina. These rains will gradually spread northeastward along the mid-Atlantic region over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 32.1N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 32.6N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 33.3N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 33.5N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/0600Z 33.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 34.5N 76.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 35.2N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z 35.8N 74.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Graphics
2016-05-29 10:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 08:48:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 08:50:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-05-29 10:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 290847 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 2(13) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 2(15) 2(17) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 1(20) 1(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 4(21) 1(22) 1(23) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 6(21) 3(24) 1(25) 1(26) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 1 20(21) 7(28) 2(30) 2(32) X(32) 1(33) FLORENCE SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 14(15) 13(28) 4(32) 3(35) X(35) 1(36) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 19(23) 11(34) 4(38) 1(39) X(39) 1(40) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 17 22(39) 6(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) 1(47) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 30 13(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) 1(47) CHARLESTON SC 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 7 6(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-29 10:47:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...SIGNIFICANT RAINS AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun May 29 the center of BONNIE was located near 32.1, -79.4 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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