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Tropical Storm DANNY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2015-08-24 10:48:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 240848 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) AVES 34 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DOMINICA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm DANNY Forecast Advisory Number 24
2015-08-24 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 60.5W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 15SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 60.5W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 60.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.1N 62.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.5N 65.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.0N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 71.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm DANNY Graphics
2015-08-24 04:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2015 02:40:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2015 02:38:44 GMT
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danny
Tropical Storm DANNY Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-08-24 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240239 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 Danny remains a sheared tropical cyclone. The low-level center is exposed well to the southwest of a small of area of deep convection that has formed within the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft that investigated Danny this evening measured tropical-storm-force winds on the SFMR over a small area close to the convection. Based on these data, Danny remains a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory. The environment ahead of Danny is expected to remain unfavorable. Moderate southwesterly shear and dry mid-tropospheric air should cause weakening, and Danny is forecast to become a tropical depression on Monday, and degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate in a couple of days. The tropical cyclone is moving westward or 270/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as Danny is expected to move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. Since the chance of tropical-storm-force winds has decreased in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the tropical storm watch for those areas has been discontinued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.6N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 61.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.3N 64.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.8N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 17.5N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm DANNY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2015-08-24 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 240239 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AVES 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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