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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-05 16:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Sep 2018 14:41:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Sep 2018 15:22:05 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-09-05 16:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 150 WTNT41 KNHC 051440 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 Remarkably, Florence has continued to strengthen. The hurricane has a compact central dense overcast with cold cloud tops completely encircling a clear, well-defined eye. With the improved structure, subjective Dvorak estimates have increased to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and T6.0/115 kt from SAB, while the latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T5.8/110 kt. The initial intensity is therefore set at 110 kt as a blend of these numbers, with Florence having become a major hurricane earlier this morning. Given the estimated maximum winds, Florence has been rapidly intensifying since yesterday, an event that was not foreseen by any intensity models, nor forecasters. Diagnostics from the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS shear analyses have been consistently showing southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt in the vicinity of Florence, but it is possible that those schemes are averaging over a larger area than might be reasonable given the hurricane's small size. Florence has apparently been able to find a small pocket of relatively low shear, and with waters becoming progressively warmer, the hurricane has strengthened significantly more than anticipated. This makes the intensity forecast incredibly uncertain. SHIPS actually shows the shear increasing over the next 24 hours, but global model fields suggest that the hurricane may still be able to continue within the protected pocket of lower shear for the next several days. As a result, the NHC official forecast keeps Florence's intensity well above the available guidance, which all show the hurricane weakening over the next day or two. The new NHC prediction follows this trend and also shows some weakening, but this is a low-confidence forecast. Either way, Florence is expected to remain a hurricane throughout the 5-day period. The track forecast also has its challenges. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 305/11 kt. It now appears that stronger upper-level ridging may take shape to the north of Florence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn back toward the west-northwest from 36-72 hours. After 72 hours, a break in the ridge should allow Florence to turn back toward the northwest, but the bulk of the track models have trended westward since yesterday. In light of these trends, the NHC official track forecast has been shifted westward on days 4 and 5, but not quite as far as the various model consensus aids. It is worth stressing that there is still a significant amount of spread among the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members by the end of the forecast period, and just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.0N 45.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 22.7N 47.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 23.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 25.1N 52.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Rhome
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2018-09-05 16:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 736 FONT11 KNHC 051439 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 25
2018-09-05 16:39:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 438 WTNT31 KNHC 051439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 ...FLORENCE FLOURISHING IN THE FACE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 45.7W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early next week. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is possible during the next few days, but Florence is expected to remain a strong hurricane through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Rhome
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 25
2018-09-05 16:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 195 WTNT21 KNHC 051438 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 45.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 45.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.7N 47.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.1N 52.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/RHOME
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