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Remnants of Kate Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-09-01 22:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012040 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 52.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-09-01 17:00:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 448 WTNT45 KNHC 011459 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 It has been difficult to pinpoint where the low-level circulation of Kate is this morning. After last night's diurnal convective maximum, the remaining convection has taken on a very disorganized structure, with a mid-level vortex being left behind to the south, while deeper, but more outflow driven convection is racing off to the north, ahead of the estimated low-level center position. A recently received 1211 UTC ASCAT-A pass indicated that Kate's low-level circulation is still closed, but just barely. The scatterometer wind data supports maintaining the current intensity at 30-kt, which also agrees with the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The estimated motion is continuing off to the north-northwest, at 340/9 kt. Kate appears to now be primarily steered by the low-level flow around a subtropical ridge located to its east. A general north-northwest motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the north and north-northeast around the periphery of this ridge. The latest NHC track guidance has been adjusted a bit right of the previous track, shifting towards the latest consensus guidance (TVCN) that can still track the cyclone beyond 24 hours. A 0958 UTC SSMIS microwave pass suggested that the better organized structure observed last night has decayed, with the low- and mid-level centers quite misaligned. Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS is now between 15-20 kt out of the north. This shear is likely contributing to the vortex tilt, while also helping to import very dry mid-level air, preventing Kate's convective activity from organizing. The bulk of the intensity guidance is in agreement that gradual spin down of the low-level circulation will occur over the next several days, with the deterministic ECMWF model suggesting Kate could open up to a trough as soon as tomorrow. The latest NHC intensity forecast makes Kate a remnant low in 36 hours, with dissipation after 48 hours. However, given the current structure, this could occur sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 26.8N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 27.9N 52.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 29.6N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 31.1N 53.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 32.4N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Kate Graphics
2021-09-01 16:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 14:56:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 14:56:42 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-09-01 16:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRUGGLING KATE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 1 the center of Kate was located near 26.8, -52.3 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 18
2021-09-01 16:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...STRUGGLING KATE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 52.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 52.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Thursday before the cyclone dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next several days. Kate is expected to become a remnant low tomorrow, and dissipate entirely on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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