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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 31
2021-08-21 04:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210258 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...GRACE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 96.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area later tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts, making Grace a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft data is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico through tomorrow morning. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 31
2021-08-21 04:56:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210256 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.0N 100.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-21 02:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING... ...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 the center of Grace was located near 20.7, -95.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 30A
2021-08-21 02:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210051 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Corrected wind speed in km/h for summary and discussion section ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING... ...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Grace Graphics
2021-08-21 02:01:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 00:01:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 21:22:42 GMT
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