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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-09-29 04:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 290 WTNT23 KNHC 290233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.1N 56.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.2N 58.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.8N 59.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 61.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 61.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.1N 61.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 35.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 55.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-28 22:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Sep 2021 20:40:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Sep 2021 20:40:44 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-28 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 28 the center of Sam was located near 17.9, -55.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 25
2021-09-28 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 282038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 ...SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 55.0W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 55.0 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a couple of days, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 25
2021-09-28 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 282038 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 55.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 55.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 55.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.7N 57.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 59.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.7N 62.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 40.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 55.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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