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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-09-25 22:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252039 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 After a brief hiccup, Sam has resumed rapid strengthening and now shows a 12-15 n mi wide well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70C. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 115 kt at 18Z, and objective intensity estimates have also been near 115 kt. Since the organization has increased some since 18Z, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Sam to provide a better estimate of the intensity. The hurricane has good cirrus outflow in all quadrants. However, a large arc cloud to the northwest of the central core suggests dry air is present in that area. The initial motion is still west-northwestward or 290/9. There are again no changes to the forecast track reasoning. The weak subtropical ridge currently to the north of Sam is forecast to shift eastward as a large deep-layer mid-latitude trough develops over the western Atlantic. This evolution should cause Sam to continue west-northwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest. Some increase in forward speed is likely by 120 h as Sam encounters stronger steering flow. The track guidance has shifted a little to the north and east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction, with the new track lying between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the other consensus models. Based on the NHC forecast, and all of the other guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5. The current strengthening is expected to continue for the next 6-12 h, and based on this the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 130 kt. After the peak, Sam is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear for at least the next 3-4 days. This suggests the intensity will be controlled mainly by eyewall replacement cycles and possible intrusions of dry air, which would cause some short-term fluctuations in intensity. In the bigger picture, the intensity guidance calls for a slow weakening during the 24-120 h forecast period, and the new intensity forecast does the same. However, it is likely that Sam will remain a major hurricane through 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 13.3N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-09-25 22:39:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 252039 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-25 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 25 the center of Sam was located near 13.3, -48.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 13
2021-09-25 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...SAM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 48.5W ABOUT 1025 MI...1655 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 48.5 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower motion to the west-northwest is expected over the weekend, followed by a turn to the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight. Some fluctuations in the hurricane's intensity are then possible early next week. Sam remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-25 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 252038 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 48.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 48.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 48.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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