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Hurricane INGRID Graphics
2013-09-15 17:08:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 14:49:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 15:04:45 GMT
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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-09-15 16:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151450 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST RAIN-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATION WAS 58 KT. A DROPSONDE NORTH OF THE CENTER SPLASHED WITH 59 KT BUT THE LAYER-AVERAGED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS WERE 53-54 KT. THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 990 MB...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE PAST FEW FIXES POINT-TO-POINT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 290/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IS A LITTLE HARD TO NAIL DOWN GIVEN THE SHEAR...AS A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST WHILE A STRONGER ONE WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE LEISURLY PATH. THE PRIMARY THREAT...APART FROM THE WIND HAZARD IN THE IMMEDIATE LANDFALL AREA...IS GOING TO BE FROM RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT FLOODING. WITH BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL BRINGING COPIOUS RAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 22.5N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 22.8N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.8N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Hurricane INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-09-15 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 151449 PWSAT5 HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 12 34 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 8 41 38 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 47 57 40 21 NA NA NA HURRICANE 53 35 7 6 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 50 29 6 5 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 3 4 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 35KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PESCO MX 34 5 56(61) 6(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) LA PESCO MX 50 X 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LA PESCO MX 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 6 45(51) 5(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) TAMPICO MX 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TAMPICO MX 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Summary for Hurricane INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-15 16:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INGRID TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 the center of INGRID was located near 22.5, -95.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane INGRID Public Advisory Number 13
2013-09-15 16:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151449 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...INGRID TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 95.8W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. DATA FROM NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...A LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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