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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-09-15 10:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150853 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF INGRID IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING... THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 75 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING INGRID AND WILL SOON PROVIDE MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ABOUT THE INTENSITY...BUT PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM THAT AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT INCREASE IN THE WINDS. INGRID WAS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...A VERY RECENT CENTER FIX FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATES THAT INGRID HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 22.4N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 22.9N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 23.1N 97.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 23.1N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 22.4N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-09-15 10:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 150853 PWSAT5 HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 22 57 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 1 3 43 28 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 4 19 44 30 11 NA NA HURRICANE 96 80 53 5 4 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 48 42 4 1 NA NA HUR CAT 2 23 26 9 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 2 6 2 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 4 X 1 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 85KT 70KT 35KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 11(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PESCO MX 34 3 58(61) 21(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) LA PESCO MX 50 X 17(17) 28(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) LA PESCO MX 64 X 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) TAMPICO MX 34 3 47(50) 19(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) TAMPICO MX 50 X 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) TAMPICO MX 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TUXPAN MX 34 2 6( 8) 7(15) 1(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) TUXPAN MX 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-15 10:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY... ...BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS FLOODING... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 the center of INGRID was located near 22.4, -95.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane INGRID Public Advisory Number 12
2013-09-15 10:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150853 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY... ...BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 95.4W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 12
2013-09-15 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150852 TCMAT5 HURRICANE INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.4W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.4W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.9N 96.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 23.1N 97.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.1N 98.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.4N 100.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 95.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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