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Tropical Storm INGRID Public Advisory Number 9A

2013-09-14 19:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 141741 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 100 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...INGRID EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 94.4W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND INFORMATION FROM THE METEOROLOGIST ONBOARD THE NOAA JET SUGGEST THAT AN EYE COULD FORMING. INGRID WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS... ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm INGRID Graphics

2013-09-14 17:14:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 14:47:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 15:07:25 GMT

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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-09-14 16:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 141445 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS INTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES PROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. INGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD TURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO VARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2013-09-14 16:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 141445 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 5 30 52 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 1 3 15 35 22 NA TROPICAL STORM 26 41 47 50 25 15 NA HURRICANE 74 58 49 30 10 11 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 69 49 40 24 7 8 NA HUR CAT 2 5 7 7 5 2 3 NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 1 1 1 NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 70KT 30KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) X(12) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 4(21) X(21) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 5( 7) 13(20) 6(26) 5(31) 6(37) X(37) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LA PESCO MX 34 2 4( 6) 14(20) 20(40) 11(51) 5(56) X(56) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 2 4( 6) 20(26) 21(47) 13(60) 3(63) X(63) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 3 4( 7) 11(18) 8(26) 10(36) 2(38) X(38) TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 4(14) 4(18) X(18) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-14 16:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...INGRID NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 the center of INGRID was located near 20.6, -94.5 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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