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Summary for Hurricane INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-16 07:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 the center of INGRID was located near 23.2, -96.9 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane INGRID Public Advisory Number 15A

2013-09-16 07:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160531 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 100 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 ...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 96.9W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane INGRID Graphics

2013-09-16 05:11:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 03:11:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 03:04:46 GMT

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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 15

2013-09-16 04:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160256 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE MEAN TIME. AROUND 21-22Z...A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 989 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND DATA OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 76 KT AT 850 MB...62-63 KT SFMR BIAS-ADJUSTED...DROPSONDE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 64 KT...AND A DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT... WHICH MEANS THAT INGRID IS BARELY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS. AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA. A COMPARISON OF RADAR FIXES AT 35000 FEET AND THE RECONNAISSANCE SURFACE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL TILTING THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME OF LANDFALL...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT INGRID IS MOVING INTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 23.1N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 23.2N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Hurricane INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-16 04:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...INGRID TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 the center of INGRID was located near 23.1, -96.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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