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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics

2016-08-18 05:09:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Aug 2016 02:45:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Aug 2016 03:06:33 GMT

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-08-18 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180244 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016 For a time late this afternoon, it seemed that Fiona might lose all its deep convection. However, a new burst developed around 2300 UTC and has persisted since that time. An 0026 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed that the cyclone is still producing a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, and the intensity remains 35 kt. Fiona has a tough road ahead. Vertical shear right now is relatively low, but it is expected to begin increasing within the next 24 hours and then become belligerent out of the southwest by days 3 and 4. In addition, the cyclone is surrounded by dry air, and any negative impacts that the dry air is already having on the convection is likely to be compounded once the shear increases in a few days. With the exception of the GFDL, which makes Fiona a hurricane by the end of the forecast period, the rest of the intensity models respond to the unfavorable environment by showing relatively little strengthening. The NHC forecast follows this same thinking, and it shows Fiona only modestly strengthening during the next 36 hours, with some weakening probable by day 3. Based on the latest intensity guidance, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted downward from the previous forecast, but it still lies above the consensus at most forecast times. The recent ASCAT data helped to fix the center, and the initial motion estimate is now west-northwestward, or 300/14 kt. A break in the mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Fiona is expected to to migrate westward during the next few days, but the cyclone's shallow nature is expected to help maintain a west-northwestward motion for much of the forecast period. The bulk of the track models are tightly clustered on such a heading. However, the GFDL (which makes Fiona hurricane) shows a sharp northward turn, while the HWRF (which essentially shows no intensification) takes a much more southern track. Since these two scenarios appear to cancel each other out, the NHC official forecast closely follows the consensus models, requiring a westward adjustment to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.5N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.3N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 17.1N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 17.8N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 18.6N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 20.6N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 22.5N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-18 04:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 17 the center of FIONA was located near 15.5, -39.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 5

2016-08-18 04:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180244 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016 ...FIONA TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 39.0W ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 39.0 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2016-08-18 04:44:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 180244 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0300 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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