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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2017-07-28 22:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 282031 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 120W 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-28 22:30:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of Hilary was located near 19.7, -119.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-28 16:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 14:42:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 15:23:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-07-28 16:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 281438 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Cloud tops near the center of Hilary continue to warm this morning, and a consensus of objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates suggests a decreased initial intensity of 55 kt. An AMSR pass at 0913 UTC showed a band of deep convection spiraling into the center. There is also a pronounced dry slot, indicative of the drier environment that the cyclone is moving into. Hilary is crossing the 26 C SST isotherm this morning, so the window for any reintensification is closing quickly, despite the insistence of the HWRF and GFS which both show a hurricane in 24 hours. Instead, the official forecast continues to follow the statistical models, which depict steady weakening until Hilary becomes a remnant low. The intensity forecast is a little lower than indicated in the previous advisory based on the lower initial intensity, but no significant changes have been made. The low-level center of the tropical storm was briefly visible this morning, and the initial motion is a fairly confident 305/7. There has been a significant shift in the guidance toward the north for this advisory, especially the GFS and the GFS-based hurricane models. The 06Z GFS in particular has shifted nearly 500 nm to the northeast at day 5 and no longer shows any significant interaction between Irwin and Hilary. The 00Z ECMWF also shifted a little north, but not nearly to the same extent. Interaction between the two cyclones, and the eventual absorption of Irwin by Hilary, is still expected for now, as shown by the UKMET and ECMWF. Based on the changes in the guidance, the official forecast has been shifted north, but still lies well south of the multi-model consensus aids. It does, however, fall near the middle of the ECMWF and GFS ensemble tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 19.2N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.9N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.9N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.8N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 24.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.8N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 26.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-28 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY MOVING OVER COOLER WATER... ...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of Hilary was located near 19.2, -118.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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hilary
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