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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-07-24 22:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 242034 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Hilary continues to display a small central core with very deep convective tops and lots of banding in the outer circulation. Although an eye is not apparent in visible imagery, WindSAT microwave data from earlier show that the hurricane has a distinct eye underneath the cloud canopy. Satellite estimates continue to increase, so the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, close to the latest SAB fix. The hurricane has been strengthening quickly during the past 24 h, near the threshold of rapid intensification. With no significant changes to the favorable oceanic and atmospheric environments forecast, there is good reason to show a similar rate of strengthening for the first 24 hours of the forecast. After that time, models are indicating an increase in northerly wind shear, partially associated with an enhanced anticyclonic outflow from TS Irwin. This might limit the peak intensity, so the wind speed forecast has been leveled off on day 2. The latest model guidance has come in closer to the previous official forecast, so little change has been made in the new NHC intensity prediction. Some weakening is likely at longer range due to cooler SSTS, entrainment of drier air, and binary interaction with Irwin. The initial motion estimate is 300/7 kt. A ridge that extends into the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States is forecast to strengthen slightly over the next couple of days, which should steer Hilary a little to the left and a bit faster during that time. The long-range forecast is quite challenging with the threat of binary interaction with Irwin, leading to widely divergent solutions by days 4-5. While the GFS keeps Hilary far separated from Irwin on the northeastern side of the guidance envelope, its ensemble mean is much more in the pack of the guidance, suggesting the latest GFS solution is not very likely. The UKMET and ECMWF continue to show rare TC binary interaction and merger scenarios which, although scientifically pleasing to see, lead to large errors potentially. Overall, the model trend toward more interaction with Irwin continues, which led to a westward shift of the latest NHC prediction at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 14.5N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 14.9N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 17.7N 115.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 18.7N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-07-24 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 242034 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 105W 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 105W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 64(68) 3(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 66(75) 4(79) X(79) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 4(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 3(26) X(26) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25(30) 4(34) 1(35) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 9(43) 1(44) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 13(50) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-24 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY CONTINUING TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Hilary was located near 14.5, -104.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Hilary Public Advisory Number 14
2017-07-24 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 242034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...HILARY CONTINUING TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 104.9W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 104.9 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-07-24 22:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 242033 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 104.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.9N 106.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 119.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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