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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-08-29 13:37:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 291137 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 106.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 106.1 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane Warning area today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico beginning later today, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Nora Graphics
2021-08-29 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 08:52:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 09:40:45 GMT
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-29 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290852 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 There have been no recent in-situ observations for estimating the intensity of Nora, but the cyclone is still fairly well-organized on satellite images. Taking a blend of T- and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS still supports keeping the system as a hurricane at this time. Center fixes indicate that Nora is moving a little west of due north at a decreased forward speed, or around 350/9 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to move north-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days, on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. This would take Nora over the eastern part of the Gulf of California, but very near the coast of mainland Mexico over the next few days. The track guidance has shifted somewhat to the east, and now suggests that it is a very distinct possibility that the system will move inland much sooner than shown by the latest NHC track forecast. The future intensity of Nora is of course highly dependent on how soon the center moves inland. The official intensity forecast assumes that the system will remain just offshore so that only slow weakening will occur during the next 72 hours or so. This is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus guidance. Alternatively, Nora may move inland sooner than indicated, in which case the system would probably dissipate in 2 to 3 days or less. Obviously, this intensity forecast is of low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the weekend and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. 3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-29 10:51:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 655 FOPZ14 KNHC 290851 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 10 22(32) 6(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) CULIACAN 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MAZATLAN 64 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-29 10:51:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Nora was located near 22.5, -105.9 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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