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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-11-02 09:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 020850 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 Eta has continued to become better organized, with a distinct Central Dense Overcast surrounded by many banding features. A low-level eye feature was seen in GPM Microwave Imager data, and Dvorak intensity estimates are at 65 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Based on this, the system is upgraded to a hurricane. Continued strengthening is likely, given the very high oceanic heat content and only moderate easterly vertical shear. The official forecast calls for rapid intensification, in line with the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index which shows a 48 percent chance of a 30 kt increase over 24 hours. Although not explicitly shown, Eta could very well be a 100-kt major hurricane when it crosses the coastline. After landfall, weakening will occur while the cyclone interacts with the very mountainous terrain of Central America. Even though official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area. The hurricane is moving westward, or at about 265/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. For the next few days, Eta should move westward or west-southwestward to the south and southeast of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. The official track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and also very similar to the various model consensus predictions. Since this is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta. Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to continue to strengthen, and it could become a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 14.8N 80.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 82.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0600Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/0600Z 15.2N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/0600Z 15.8N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-11-02 09:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 020848 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 80.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 80.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.6N 82.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.2N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.8N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 80.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-11-02 03:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 020252 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 Eta has continued to become better organized this evening, including the development of an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops colder than -90C near the center, improved banding features in the northwestern semicircle, and the formation of a pinhole mid-level eye noted in 01/2322Z 91GHz SSMI/S microwave imagery. Water vapor imagery also indicates that the upper-level outflow pattern has continued to expand, with dual outflow channels having formed to the northeast and the southwest. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 60 kt based on the pinhole eye feature...and this intensity estimate is probably conservative. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta in a few hours. Eta has slowed down but is still moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An expansive subtropical ridge that extends from the southwestern Atlantic across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to keep Eta moving in a general westward direction through Monday morning. By Monday afternoon and evening, the portion of the ridge over the Gulf is forecast to build southward and eastward in the wake of an exiting mid-latitude trough currently moving across the eastern and southeastern United States. The increased ridging will act to force Eta west-southwestward and eventually southwestward over the next 36 hours, resulting in landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. After moving inland, steering currents are forecast to weaken significantly on days 3-5 as another trough digs southeastward out of the U.S. Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico, eroding the Gulf ridge and causing Eta to drift slowly westward across Central America. Compared to the preponderance of the the model guidance, the HWRF solution of Eta remaining just offshore over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is considered to be an outlier. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus models TVCA and GFEX, which are a little to the right of the corrected-consensus model, HCCA. Based on the new NHC track forecast, no changes are required to the existing tropical cyclone warnings and watches in effect. Eta has rapidly intensified 20 kt during the past 12 h. Given the much improved inner-core structure as noted in the SSMI/S imagery, combined with sea-surface temperatures in excess of 29 deg C, mid-level humidity values greater than 80 percent, and the already impressive outflow pattern, Eta should continue to rapidly strengthen until landfall occurs. The main question is: how much strengthening will take place? Some of the more reliable intensity guidance brings the cyclone up to 105-110 kt in 36 hours, with the HWRF model bringing Eta to near category-4 strength. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Eta as a major hurricane in 36 hours when it is expected to be located just inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but a stronger intensity is highly probable just before landfall occurs. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter while the cyclone moves over the rugged, mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras, with Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary Central American Gyre (CAG). Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early Monday morning. Additional strengthening is forecast thereafter, and Eta is expected to be a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 14.9N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 14.8N 81.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 14.1N 83.4W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z 14.0N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1200Z 14.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/0000Z 14.9N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/0000Z 15.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-11-02 03:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 020249 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 81.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 83.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 84.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.9N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 80.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-11-01 21:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 012053 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 Eta has continued to quickly become better organized today with an increase in banding and the development of a central dense overcast feature. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes this afternoon has found a strengthening tropical storm. The aircraft has reported a minimum pressure of 992 mb and a 30 n-mi-wide eye that is open to the southwest. A blend of the SFMR and flight-level wind data support an initial wind speed of 55 kt for this advisory. Given the much improved inner-core structure as reported by the reconnaissance aircraft and the favorable environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear and high ocean heat content, additional strengthening is likely. The intensity guidance is much higher this cycle, and the various rapid intensification models show a much more significant chance of rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The DTOPS model indicates a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours, while the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 53 percent chance of a 45-kt increase over the next 36 hours. Based on the higher initial intensity and the more bullish guidance, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased and essentially calls for rapid strengthening until Eta reaches the coast of Central America. Once inland, Eta should quickly weaken over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. Eta is still moving steadily westward or 270 degrees at about 14 kt. A westward motion at a somewhat slower forward speed is expected tonight. On Monday, Eta is forecast to turn southwestward at a slower forward speed when a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. Eta is forecast to move inland over northeastern Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area Monday night or early Tuesday. The dynamical models are in relatively good agreement through about 72 hours, expect for the HWRF which shows a more northern track and keeps Eta offshore for much of the period. This solution is considered an outlier at this time, and the NHC track is in good agreement with the various global models and the HFIP corrected consensus model. Some model solutions still suggest Eta or its remnants will re-emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. The new NHC 5-day position is still inland near the Gulf of Honduras close to the various consensus aids, but large uncertainty exists in the forecast at that time range due to the large spread in the track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, and additional strengthening is forecast before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. Through Friday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 14.7N 82.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1800Z 14.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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