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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-07-30 22:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 266 WTNT24 KNHC 302054 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS MAY BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 70.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......210NE 120SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE 0SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 70.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 69.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.8N 72.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 30SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.7N 75.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 77.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.1N 78.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.7N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 33.3N 78.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 70.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-07-30 19:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 17:54:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 15:24:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-30 19:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAIAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Jul 30 the center of Isaias was located near 18.9, -69.8 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-07-30 19:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301754 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 PM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 ...ISAIAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 69.8W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 69.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move over Hispaniola through this evening, and be near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwest Bahamas or South Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias continues to move over Hispaniola today. Re-strengthening is forecast on Friday and Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) primarily to the north of the center. A weather station at Punta Cana near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area, and are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-07-30 16:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 14:52:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 14:52:22 GMT
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