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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-07-24 19:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241742 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...HANNA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 93.7W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM E OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located by satellite and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 93.7 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue this afternoon. A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion through the weekend. On the forecast track, center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the tropical cyclone makes landfall. Steady weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a ship located just east of the center reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches through Sunday night in south Texas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hanna Graphics
2020-07-24 17:01:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 15:01:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 15:32:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-24 16:59:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241459 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft this morning and nearby ship D5DY4 indicate that Hanna has strengthened a little. However, the aircraft data also showed that Hanna's center had moved or reformed a little farther north near the northern edge of the convective cloud mass. A partial SSMI/S pass around 1231Z suggested that a mid-level eye feature could be forming, but it also possible that a dry slot may be intruding into the cloud shield from the northwest and west. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on aircraft SFMR surface winds of 38-40 kt, and the 1200Z D5DY5 ship report of 48 kt at 89 meters elevation, which reduces to a 38-kt 10-meter wind speed. Even with the earlier northwestward jump in the center position, reconnaissance and microwave satellite data indicate that Hanna's motion is still west-northwestward or 285/08 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous official track forecast or reasonings over the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement that mid-level ridge will build to the north and northwest of Hanna over the next couple of days, resulting in the cyclone turning westward by tonight and on Saturday. It should then turn west-southwestward Saturday night and Sunday. The new NHC forecast track continues to show the center making landfall along the south-central coast of Texas within the tropical storm warning area Saturday afternoon or evening, which is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Hanna's convective cloud shield remains very asymmetrical with the bulk of the convection confined to the southern semicircle despite the otherwise symmetrical and expanding upper-level outflow pattern. More recently, some deep convection has developed near the center and the aforementioned possible mid-level eye feature. Hanna is forecast to remain in relatively low vertical wind shear regime and over SSTs of 30C or more, a combination that typically favors significant intensification. However, nearby dry mid-level air noted in 1200Z soundings from Corpus Christi and Brownsville has been eroding and preventing convection from developing in the northwest quadrant and near the center, which has inhibited strengthening over the past couple of days despite the low shear conditions. The latest global model guidance shows the dry air mixing out in about 24 h just prior to landfall, which should allow for at least gradual strengthening until landfall occurs in about 30 h or so. However, if an eyewall forms during the next 12 h, then it is possible that Hanna could be near 60 kt when it makes landfall. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity forecasts. Key Messages 1. Hanna is forecast to strengthen and it is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 2. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 27.2N 93.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 27.5N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 27.4N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 97.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 27/0000Z 26.3N 100.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1200Z 25.7N 101.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-24 16:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 14:59:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 15:24:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-24 16:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241458 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Gonzalo continues to produce bursts of deep convection, especially in the southeast quadrant, but has not become any better organized overall since the last advisory. Microwave imagery overnight indicated the low-level structure of Gonzalo is still largely intact, but this has not translated into better convective organization. ASCAT data valid shortly after 12Z revealed that Gonzalo has accelerated west faster than anticipated and has not strengthened. In fact the strongest winds in the ASCAT data were only 30-35 kt. The resolution of ASCAT likely limits its ability to sample the actual max winds of small storms like Gonzalo, but it is another indication that the cyclone has not strengthened and could be weakening. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 45 kt, based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate the storm this afternoon will provide a more information about Gonzalo's intensity and structure. Due primarily to the adjusted initial position, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount west and south of the previous advisory. Overall Gonzalo is still forecast to move generally westward or west-northwestward through the period, steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies between the old forecast, adjusted for the new initial position, and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. The intensity guidance is generally lower than it has been for the last day or so, and none of the operational models forecast Gonzalo to reach hurricane strength. Unfortunately, small storms like Gonzalo are often subject to large swings in intensity, up or down, and that aspect of the forecast remains highly uncertain, even though the spread in the guidance is not particularly high. The NHC forecast has been adjusted only slightly lower for this cycle and is now above all of the guidance at the time the system is forecast to pass through the Windward Islands. A larger adjustment could be made later today if the most recent model trends continue, or if the recon mission finds that Gonzalo is even weaker than the current estimates. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning and Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.0N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.4N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 13.0N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 13.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 14.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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