je.st
news
Tag: storm
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 38
2021-07-09 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 091446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway. A frontal boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the cyclone. Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition this afternoon. Buoy and surface observations indicate that the cyclone's intensity has changed little since early this morning. Based on those data, Elsa's peak winds and minimum pressure remain 45 kt and 1000 mb for this advisory, respectively. Elsa continues to move quickly northeastward or 045/27 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating northeastward over the next day or two as it remains embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow. After 48 hours, the system is expected to slow before it dissipates over the north Atlantic around day 3. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but has shifted slightly southward after 24 hours and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa completes its extratropical transition. After that time, gradual weakening is anticipated and the wind speed forecast calls for the system to weaken below gale-force in a couple of days. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north Atlantic by early next week, and the official forecast follows suit. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves near southern and coastal New England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Long Island and southern New England through this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 41.0N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 38
2021-07-09 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 091446 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.0N 72.1W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by surface and radar data over eastern Long Island near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 72.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near eastern Long Island and the coast of southern New England through this afternoon, and then offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. Gradual weakening is forecast to occur over the weekend. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow site near Jones Beach, New York recently reported a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) and a WeatherFlow site near Block Island Jetty observed a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA buoy 44025 is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid- afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon over southeastern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2021-07-09 16:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 091445 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PTX BASQUES 34 X 41(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) PTX BASQUES 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 6 32(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) YARMOUTH NS 34 59 13(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) YARMOUTH NS 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST JOHN NB 34 6 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) EASTPORT ME 34 36 7(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) EASTPORT ME 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BOSTON MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) NANTUCKET MA 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) PROVIDENCE RI 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NEW LONDON CT 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 38
2021-07-09 16:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 091444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 72.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 72.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 72.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-09 13:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 the center of Elsa was located near 40.2, -73.1 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
elsa
Sites : [326] [327] [328] [329] [330] [331] [332] [333] [334] [335] [336] [337] [338] [339] [340] [341] [342] [343] [344] [345] next »