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Subtropical Storm Teresa Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-24 22:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Teresa Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 64.5W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Teresa was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Teresa should slow its forward motion and turn toward the north by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Teresa should dissipate in about two days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-24 22:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 078 FONT14 KNHC 242052 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-24 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242051 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 64.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 64.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 64.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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US Oil Refiners Pick Iraqi, Canadian Crudes to Replace Storm Losses
2021-09-24 11:15:00| OGI
The loss of up to 250,000 bbl/d after Hurricane Ida has some U.S. refiners seeking replacements for fourth-quarter delivery, especially Iraqs Basra crude, traders said. Others received supplies of sour crude from U.S. storehouses.
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Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-24 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240240 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Microwave data from around the time of the previous advisory revealed that Sam has developed a well-defined inner core, including a nearly closed eyewall feature in the 91-GHz channel. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to T3.5 and T4.0, respectively, and the initial intensity is therefore estimated to be 60 kt. Sam's 24-hour intensity change qualifies as rapid intensification, since the cyclone was only a 30-kt tropical depression at this time yesterday. Sam is small, however. Recent scatterometer data showed that tropical-storm-force winds only extend a maximum of 40 n mi from the center, and the radius of maximum winds is estimated to be about 15 n mi. This small size is likely to have implications on Sam's future intensity. Sam is moving a little slower toward the west (280/13 kt). A mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to build across the Caribbean Sea and extend northeastward over the central Atlantic during the next few days. This blocking high is expected to cause Sam to slow down to 6 to 7 kt by late Saturday and Sunday while it maintains a westward to west-northwestward heading. Global models suggest the ridge may weaken and shift eastward a bit by days 4 and 5, allowing Sam to turn to the northwest and speed up a little by the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models lie along the southern edge of the main pack of models, while the ECENS ensemble mean is even farther south. The GFS and the HMON are on the northern side. Partially due to an adjustment of the initial position, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a bit from the previous forecast, and it lies just south of the TVCA consensus aid--but not as far to the left as the previously mentioned southern models. Environmental conditions and Sam's structure and size are ideal for continued rapid intensification (RI). The SHIPS RI index for a 30-kt increase in 24 hours is nearly 50 percent. The DTOPS methodology, which uses inputs from the statistical-dynamical and deterministic models, shows RI indices for various forecast periods exceeding 90 percent. Therefore, rapid strengthening is being forecast at least for the next 36 hours, with Sam becoming a hurricane very soon and then a major hurricane by Friday night or Saturday morning. One caveat to this forecast is that although Sam's small size more readily allows for RI to occur, it can also make the cyclone more prone to weakening if, for example, vertical shear increases. By 48 hours, the intensity models show the strengthening trend leveling off, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Fluctuations in intensity from days 3 through 5 are likely, both due to normal internal dynamics within the storm and the cyclone's response to the surrounding environment in relation to its small size. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 11.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 11.8N 45.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 12.1N 46.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 12.5N 47.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 13.0N 49.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 13.5N 50.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 15.3N 53.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 17.3N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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