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Tropical Storm Claudette Graphics
2021-06-21 16:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Jun 2021 14:50:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Jun 2021 15:22:39 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-21 16:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CLAUDETTE NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 the center of Claudette was located near 37.0, -75.0 with movement ENE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Claudette Public Advisory Number 16
2021-06-21 16:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 ...CLAUDETTE NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 75.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 75.0 West. Claudette is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will cross into the western Atlantic Ocean later this morning, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mostly over water, southeast of Claudette's center. Some additional slight strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean today. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon and dissipate late Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall will be coming to an end this morning across the Outer Banks of North Carolina and far southeast Virginia. Additional rainfall amounts of an inch are possible across far southeastern Virginia and the northern Outer Banks over the next few hours. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-21 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Claudette's low-level center is estimated to be back over water. However, it is difficult to locate in surface observation data due to the broad inner-core wind field and elongated pressure envelope near the NC/VA coasts in which the cyclone is embedded. For now, the surface center has been placed close to the low- to mid-level circulation center noted in KAKQ and KMHX Doppler radar data. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 1200 UTC 32-kt wind report from ship 3EVZ8 located about 130 nmi southeast of the center. Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward and the motion is now 060/24 kt. The track forecast and discussion remain pretty straightforward. Claudette is now caught up in the deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the north side of a broad subtropical ridge and ahead of a mid-latitude trough currently moving into the eastern and southeastern United States. The cyclone or its remnants will gradually lift out toward the northeast ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of consensus track models TVCA, GFEX, and HCCA. As Claudette continues to accelerate, its increased forward speed could result in the low-level wind field opening up into a trough, which would result in the cessation of the system as a tropical cyclone. For now, however, the assumption is that the cyclone could strengthen a little more, which would allow for the surface wind field to remain closed today and into Tuesday until the system weakens over the cold North Atlantic waters north of the Gulf Stream, which is located along roughly 38N latitude. As a result, Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 h, follows by dissipation in about 48 h. The official NHC intensity forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN. Key Message: 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue to diminish this morning across far southeast Virginia and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 37.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 38.7N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 41.8N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0000Z 44.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-06-21 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 211449 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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