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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-19 16:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191456 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Although the center of the system has become exposed over the past few hours, it is very well defined. In addition, the convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation has continued to improve. Based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5 from TAFB, the system is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. ASCAT-A has missed the circulation, but ASCAT-B caught the far eastern edge of the wind field and indicates winds of 30-35 kt in that area. The tropical storm is located within an environment of moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and over warm waters. These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. By 48 hours, decreasing vertical wind shear could allow for more significant intensification, and there is increasing spread in the intensity guidance by that time. The statistical guidance is at the upper-end of the envelope while the regional hurricane models are lower. The NHC forecast is a bit on the conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent advisories. Epsilon is meandering over the central Atlantic as it is located within an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek, and this ridge should slide eastward later in the week. These changes in the synoptic pattern should cause Epsilon to begin moving west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed by midweek. The models are again in fairly good agreement and the NHC track is near the center of the guidance envelope. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-19 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2020 14:55:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2020 15:24:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-19 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM EPSILON... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 19 the center of Epsilon was located near 25.6, -55.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 2
2020-10-19 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM EPSILON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 55.3W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 55.3 West. Epsilon is stationary and little overall motion is expected through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion should continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-10-19 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 191453 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 26(37) 13(50) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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