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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-05 04:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050235 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 132.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.4N 134.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.3N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.6N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.7N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-10-05 04:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-05 01:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 23:57:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 21:25:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-05 01:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL STORM NOW... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Gamma was located near 22.9, -87.4 with movement ENE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-10-05 01:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 042356 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL STORM NOW... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 87.4W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 87.4 West. The tropical storm is currently drifting east-northeastward near 3 mph (5 km/h). Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or west-southwest on Monday and move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday and continue into Tuesday. Afterward, little change in strength is forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on preliminary data from the Hurricane Hunter plane is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco. This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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