je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-16 16:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 161444 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Although the center of the depression is embedded beneath deep convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are not a consensus T2.5 quite yet. Therefore, the depression is still estimated to be producing maximum winds of 30 kt. Very warm waters and low to moderate deep-layer shear are expected to support strengthening during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, strong northerly to northeasterly shear of 25-30 kt is likely halt any intensification. For the most part, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the tightly clustered SHIPS, LGEM, HCCA, and IVCN aids. As we've seen in several cases this year, the HWRF is a notable high outlier, bringing the system to category 2 hurricane strength in 2-3 days. Given the expected shear, that solution does not appear likely at this point. The depression has been moving southward, or 185/8 kt, and it is expected to rotate around a mid-tropospheric high located over the western Atlantic. Track models are in general agreement that the system will make a clockwise loop in the coming days, with most of the disagreement being in how sharp the turn will be. In part due to the system's initial motion, the updated NHC track forecast now shows a wider, sweeping loop and is close to the TVCA consensus aid. It should be noted that the ECMWF and HCCA aids are even farther south and show an even more gradual turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 31.3N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.2N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 29.9N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 29.8N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.1N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 31.0N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 33.1N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2021-08-16 16:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:42:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:42:49 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-16 16:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Aug 16 the center of Eight was located near 31.3, -62.8 with movement S at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-16 16:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 62.8W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 62.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move well to the south of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Fred Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-16 16:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:41:53 GMT
Sites : [393] [394] [395] [396] [397] [398] [399] [400] [401] [402] [403] [404] [405] [406] [407] [408] [409] [410] [411] [412] next »