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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-03 19:27:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 031727 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 3 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-03 16:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 14:41:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 15:28:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-10-03 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031440 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Victor has managed to maintain an area of deep convection to the northeast of its low-level center through the morning hours. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt. However, an ASCAT-A pass from 1110 UTC indicates the increasingly elongated center of Victor is about 45 n mi south of previous estimates, which puts the center farther away from the edge of the convective overcast. Although a few 35-kt ASCAT wind vectors are noted, these retrievals are collocated with the most intense convection and appear artificially high when compared to the surrounding 20 to 30-kt wind field. Thus, the initial intensity of Victor is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS guidance indicates 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear will persist over Victor today, with even stronger shear expected on Monday. Additionally, the dry mid-level environment that Victor is embedded within appears unfavorable for sustaining deep convection. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected early this week, and Victor is forecast to lose its convection and degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Another plausible scenario is that Victor's low-level center continues to lose definition and the system opens up into a trough with the next couple of days. Either way, Victor does not appear to have much of a future. A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic is steering Victor northwestward, or 310/10 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as Victor moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Although the track reasoning has not changed, the official NHC forecast track lies to the left of the previous advisory due to the center relocation described above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.1N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.6N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.5N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.1N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.4N 48.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-03 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 3 the center of Victor was located near 16.1, -40.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 17
2021-10-03 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031437 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...VICTOR STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 40.3W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 40.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Victor is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday and dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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