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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-18 04:57:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 02:57:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 02:57:43 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 51
2017-09-18 04:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180254 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Jose's cloud pattern has transformed from one with a tight inner core to one with a large convective band over the northern semicircle that wraps around the center. This change in structure can be seen in recent microwave imagery and aircraft data that show an expansion of the radius of maximum winds. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still support an initial wind speed of 80 kt, but the minimum pressure has risen several millibars since this morning. Strong southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the track of Jose are expected to cause gradual weakening, however Jose is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity through 48 hours. Around that time, Jose is forecast to pass north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters, which will likely result in an additional decrease in intensity at 72 h and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance through 72 h, and closer to the global models at days 4 and 5. Jose is moving northward at about 8 kt around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning is the same as the previous advisory. Jose should continue northward during the next day or so, then turn north- northeastward as a broad mid-latitude trough passes north of the hurricane. After the trough passes Jose's longitude in about 72 h, the cyclone will be left within weak steering currents and is expected to drift eastward, then southeastward and southward late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast through 72 h is virtually on top of the previous advisory. The latest dynamical model guidance takes Jose a little more westward very late in the period, and the new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the left at day 5, close to the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. A tropical storm watch is now in effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on the current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope. Any deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 32.2N 71.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 33.4N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 34.9N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 36.6N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 38.3N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 40.2N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 39.5N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 38.5N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2017-09-18 04:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 180250 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 2(14) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 2(12) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 2(17) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) 1(18) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 6(23) 2(25) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) 6(29) 1(30) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 6(24) 1(25) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 8(34) 2(36) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 26(42) 10(52) 2(54) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 1(15) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 28(52) 9(61) 2(63) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) 1(20) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 20(35) 8(43) 2(45) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 12(27) 4(31) 2(33) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 12(27) 6(33) 1(34) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 12(24) 5(29) 1(30) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 17(34) 7(41) 2(43) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 3(17) 1(18) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 19(42) 7(49) 2(51) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 11(32) 6(38) 1(39) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 9(26) 4(30) 1(31) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 8(22) 4(26) 1(27) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 7(20) 4(24) 1(25) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 2(20) 1(21) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 7(26) 3(29) 1(30) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 2(20) 1(21) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 5(26) 3(29) 1(30) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 4(24) 2(26) 1(27) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 3(24) 3(27) 1(28) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 3(22) 1(23) 1(24) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) NORFOLK VA 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 6( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) 1(19) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-18 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Jose was located near 32.2, -71.6 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 51
2017-09-18 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 ...JOSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 71.6W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook * Delaware Bay South * East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 71.6 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday night. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Monday, and pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. Reports from a NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, and Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The lastest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL...Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the Mid Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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