je.st
news
Tag: jose
Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-17 10:59:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 08:59:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 09:23:02 GMT
Tags: graphics
jose
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 48
2017-09-17 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170851 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 The satellite presentation of Jose continues to reveal little change in the overall cloud structure since yesterday afternoon. The 25-30 kt of westerly shear is inhibiting any further development of the inner core. Cloud tops have warmed near the center and the cyclone appears to be tilted toward the northeast with height in earlier microwave images. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from the last advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. Due to the expected shear persisting through the entire forecast period, the statistical and dynamical intensity guidance no longer indicate any hint of strengthening, even in the short term. Accordingly, The NHC forecast reflects little change in strength through the 48 hour period, then shows gradual weakening through 5 days. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this northward track, along the western periphery of the Bermuda high, through 48 hours. Afterward, Jose should gradually turn north-northeastward to northeastward on days 3 and 4. Near the end of the forecast period, Jose is forecast to slowly turn eastward within the mid-latitude, mid-level westerly flow associated with shortwave trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the west, closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and near a blend of the UKMET, and ECMWF which have also shifted a bit westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 34.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 35.6N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 39.8N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
jose
forecast
Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2017-09-17 10:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 170849 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 3(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 2(16) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 3(33) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 14(37) 3(40) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) 3(27) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 1(20) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 2(19) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) 2(26) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) 2(31) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 2(23) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 1(18) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) 1(18) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-17 10:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Jose was located near 30.0, -71.7 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Tags: summary
jose
hurricane
at2al122017
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 48
2017-09-17 10:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 ...JOSE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 71.7W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches may be needed for portions of this area during the next day or two. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 71.7 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
jose
advisory
Sites : [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] next »