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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 47
2017-09-17 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 71.8W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches may be needed for portions of this area during the next day or two. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 71.8 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 47
2017-09-17 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170237 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 71.8W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 160SE 120SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 71.8W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.0N 71.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.4N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.9N 71.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.4N 71.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.7N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 40.2N 67.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 40.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 71.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-16 22:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 20:40:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 21:23:00 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 46
2017-09-16 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 162036 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through Jose's center and found that the central pressure has dropped to 973 mb. A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed SFMR wind was 65 kt. Based on these data, Jose's initial intensity is held at 70 kt. The lack of significant intensification in spite of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering. Smoothing through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or 360/5 kt. This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the official forecast. Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight strengthening. However, the shear is expected to increase over 30 kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken. The hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72 hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves eastward away from New England. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 28.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 29.6N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.9N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 32.3N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 33.8N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 37.1N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-16 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH 80-MPH WINDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Jose was located near 28.9, -71.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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