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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 46
2017-09-16 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH 80-MPH WINDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 71.9W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches may be needed for portions of this area during the next day or two. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 71.9 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Monday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Monday. The aircraft data indicate that Jose has increased in size. Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 46
2017-09-16 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 71.9W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 160SE 120SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 71.9W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.6N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.9N 71.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.3N 71.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 33.8N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 210SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.1N 70.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 71.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2017-09-16 22:35:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 162035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 4(32) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 2(21) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 1(12) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 1(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 6(17) X(17) 1(18) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-16 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 14:50:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 15:24:16 GMT
Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 45
2017-09-16 16:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161442 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Earlier microwave data seemed to suggest that Jose's low-level center is displaced to the northwest of the mid-level microwave eye, which is not surprising given that the various shear analyses indicate about 25 kt from the west-northwest. The initial intensity is being held at 70 kt, pending the arrival of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon. The shear over Jose is not expected to abate, and in fact, it could increase further in the next 36 to 48 hours. However, the hurricane will remain over warm waters south of the Gulf Stream for the next three days, and the intensity models suggest that it should be able to at least maintain its intensity, if not strengthen slightly. After day 3, the hurricane will move north of the Gulf Stream over much colder water, and that will likely lead to the system weakening to a tropical storm. Although there will be a cold front approaching from the northwest by day 5, Jose still looks separated from the frontal zone at that point, and there is no appreciable injection of baroclinic energy at that time to allow for strengthening. Best I can tell, Jose is moving northwestward with an initial motion of 320/8 kt. Jose will be moving around the western periphery of a mid-level high anchored to the east of Bermuda, which will cause it to turn northward and maintain that heading through day 3. The track models are tightly clustered during this period, and there is relatively high confidence in the NHC forecast. After day 3, the models have come into much better agreement that Jose will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC track forecast is faster than the previous one by day 5 in order to keep up with the GFS and ECMWF. Regardless, Jose's track and an expected increase in size will likely lead to impacts along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts in a few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 28.8N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 29.5N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.8N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 32.4N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 37.2N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 41.5N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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