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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-16 11:01:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Jose was located near 27.9, -71.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 44
2017-09-16 11:01:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160901 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 44...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Corrected headline ...JOSE MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 71.8W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 71.8 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose could become a little stronger, and is expected to remain a hurricane for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 44
2017-09-16 10:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160855 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 NOAA buoy 41047 has been very helpful in determining the position and central pressure of Jose this morning. The center of Jose passed just north of the buoy around 0500 UTC, and a surface pressure of 986 mb with 20-30 kt of winds was measured. Since the buoy did not sample the stronger northeast quadrant of the storm, the initial intensity has been held at 70 kt. Another reconnaissance flight later today will provide a better estimate of the max winds. There is some indication of northeasterly shear inhibiting the outflow of Jose, which is restricted in the northwest quadrant. Since it appears to be negatively affecting the cyclone, the shear may inhibit any more substantial intensification. The intensity guidance is a little lower than before, so the new NHC forecast has been lowered slightly, and is now close to the intensity consensus throughout the forecast. Jose has moved just a little to the southwest of the expected track, and the initial motion remains 305/8 kt. However, Jose is still expected to begin turning toward the north later today, so no significant changes were needed for the early part of the forecast. More importantly, the GFS and ECMWF have met in the middle of their previous solutions, and have come into much better agreement on the forward speed of the hurricane beyond day 2. The new track forecast is very close to a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Although confidence in the track forecast is a little higher due to the model agreement, it is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. While the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 31.2N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 32.9N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 39.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 41.0N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2017-09-16 10:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 160854 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 9(37) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 12(44) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 7(32) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 4(24) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 5(25) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 6(31) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 6(34) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 4(27) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 2(21) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 2(21) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 1(23) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 1(20) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) X(19) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 1(19) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 2(27) 1(28) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 44
2017-09-16 10:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160854 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 71.8W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 71.8W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 71.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 72.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.9N 72.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 190SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 39.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 41.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 71.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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