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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 40
2017-09-15 10:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150858 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 Jose is showing signs of becoming better organized. The low-level center is embedded well within a growing central dense overcast (CDO). Despite the improved appearance of Jose, the Dvorak classifications are largely unchanged since 6 hours ago, so the intensity has been held at 60 kt. There has been no change in any of the intensity guidance, so I see no reason to substantially change the intensity forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, and continues to show Jose regaining hurricane status later today. Beginning around 72 h, an increase in shear should bring an end to intensification, and will probably cause Jose to weaken. Once again, some of the global models suggest that Jose will remain a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that extratropical transition could begin around that time. If that happens, baroclinic forcing could help maintain the intensity of Jose, even as the shear increases. Because the low-level circulation center of Jose is hidden beneath the CDO, the initial position and heading are fairly uncertain. My best estimate of the current motion is 290/7 kt. Despite the initial motion uncertainty, the global models are coming into better agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S. That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi in that direction. My new forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.9N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.4N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 28.3N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 29.4N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 32.2N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 35.0N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 38.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-15 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 15 the center of Jose was located near 25.9, -68.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 40
2017-09-15 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150858 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 ...JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 68.7W ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected later today and on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Jose is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2017-09-15 10:58:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 150858 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 7(26) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 5(35) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 4(22) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 3(25) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 3(23) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 40
2017-09-15 10:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150857 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 68.7W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 68.7W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 68.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.4N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.3N 72.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.4N 72.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.2N 72.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 35.0N 72.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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