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Tropical Depression ANA Public Advisory Number 13
2015-05-11 05:04:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EST SUN MAY 10 2015
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Tropical Depression ANA Graphics
2015-05-10 22:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 May 2015 20:32:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 May 2015 20:31:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression ANA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-05-10 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 102031 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 Surface and radar data indicate that Ana is moving farther inland. The estimated intensity is 30 kt, and these winds are confined to the coastal areas of North Carolina. Continued weakening is expected, and the system should degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours. Although a forecast track is shown through 48 hours, it should be noted that the global models show the system degenerating into an open trough sooner than that time. In any event, the remnants of Ana are likely to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone over Atlantic Canada. The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 020/4 kt. The steering flow associated with a large mid-level trough to the west of Ana should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward with some acceleration over the next day or two. The official track forecast lies between the dynamical model consensus and the latest ECMWF solution. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ana. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 PM EDT under AWIPS header TCPAT1 AND WMO header WTNT31 KWNH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 34.4N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 35.3N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 37.0N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 39.3N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-05-10 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 102031 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 2100 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) RICHMOND VA 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NORFOLK VA 34 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) RALEIGH NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 8 X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression ANA Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-05-10 22:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 102030 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 2100 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 78.6W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 78.6W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 78.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.3N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.0N 76.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 39.3N 73.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 78.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 11 PM EDT UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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