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Subtropical Depression Teresa Graphics
2021-09-25 16:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Sep 2021 14:49:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Sep 2021 14:49:02 GMT
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-25 16:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 897 WTNT44 KNHC 251445 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Teresa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours now. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and a band of showers and thunderstorms located about 250 n mi north of the center. This patch of convection is detached from the low-level circulation, and it appears to be more involved with an upper-level trough to the northeast of Teresa. A 1210 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows that the winds within that convection have decreased, with several vectors in the 25 to 30 kt range. Based on that data, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Teresa a subtropical depression. Teresa is unlikely to redevelop any convection near its center as strong west-southwesterly wind shear continues over the cyclone. This will prevent any opportunity for strengthening. Teresa is expected to become a remnant low later today or this evening and dissipate on Sunday. The global models are in good agreement with this scenario. Teresa has moved little during the past 12 hours, so a stationary motion is currently indicated for this advisory. However, a motion toward the northeast should begin within the next few hours and continue through dissipation as the cyclone moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The track forecast was adjusted a little to the east of the previous advisory, and is in agreement with the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 34.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 35.4N 64.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 37.2N 62.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-25 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 251444 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN
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Summary for Subtropical Depression Teresa (AT4/AL192021)
2021-09-25 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TERESA WEAKENS TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 25 the center of Teresa was located near 34.3, -65.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-25 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 547 WTNT34 KNHC 251444 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Teresa Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...TERESA WEAKENS TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 65.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Teresa was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Teresa is nearly stationary. A motion toward the northeast is expected to begin this afternoon and continue through Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Teresa is expected to become a remnant low by this evening and dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven
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