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Subtropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-10-10 16:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101447 TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands has developed a large area of deep convection in a long curved band north and west of the center. First-light visible satellite imagery also indicates that the low-level center of the low has become better defined since yesterday. Satellite classifications are a subtropical 1.5 from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, and the system's involvement with a nearby upper-level low and roughly 100 n mi radius of maximum winds also argue for a subtropical designation. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the depression this afternoon to better assess its intensity and structure. The protective cover of the nearby upper low will provide a relatively low vertical wind shear environment in the short term, with the cyclone over warm sea surface temperatures of 28- 29 deg C. The model guidance indicates that the depression should become embedded in increasing southerly vertical shear east of the same upper-level trough after 24 hours, so the system has a short window for intensification or transformation into a tropical cyclone. Global models depict the cyclone becoming absorbed by a frontal zone over the north-central Atlantic before 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical-dynamical guidance. The depression is moving northwestward or 320/09 around the southwestern perhiphery of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The deep-layer steering flow around this feature should cause the cyclone to turn northward within 24 hours, after which it will turn northeastward in increasing southwesterly flow at the base of a longwave trough prior to absorption by the front. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA, through- out the period and between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 23.8N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 25.1N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 26.8N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.4N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 31.5N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Subtropical Depression SEVEN (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-10 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 10 the center of SEVEN was located near 23.8, -63.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression SEVEN Public Advisory Number 1
2014-10-10 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 63.7W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Subtropical Depression SEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-10-10 16:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 101446 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Subtropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-10-10 16:41:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101441 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 64.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.8N 65.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.4N 64.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 62.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 63.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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