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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-21 16:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 ...DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 124.2W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 2110 MI...3390 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 124.2 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west at a similar forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Wednesday night. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue at least through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Douglas could become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-07-21 16:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 211438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 124.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 124.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.1N 126.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.6N 131.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.9N 136.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 139.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 145.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 151.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-07-21 16:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 211438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) 1(44) X(44) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) X(30) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics
2020-07-21 10:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 08:37:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 08:37:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 1(43) X(43) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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