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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-23 22:43:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232042 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 Visible satellite images show that Douglas is quite a powerful hurricane. The eye has become more crisp during the day, and infrared data also show that the eyewall convection has deepened. The initial wind speed is raised to 110 kt, which matches a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Douglas is beginning to move across the typical cool SST gradient of the eastern Pacific, implying that the hurricane is probably near its peak intensity. The cyclone should only slowly weaken on Friday and Saturday due to cooler waters along the predicted track and the vertical shear remaining low. As the hurricane approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, the SSTs increase but so does the shear. Since the shear generally dominates over marginally warm waters, a continued weakening is forecast. However, almost all of the guidance shows Douglas near hurricane strength as it moves close to Hawaii. The model guidance remains consistent, and no significant changes were made to the NHC wind speed prediction. Douglas continues moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. The guidance is a little more divergent than the previous cycle, with a subtle northward model trend at longer range due to a weaker ridge forecast north of Hawaii, though the ECMWF and its ensembles have shifted a little southward. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, very little change is made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new official forecast lies on the southwest side of the model envelope. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-07-23 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 232042 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 53 33(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 140W 64 21 40(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 25(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 4(45) X(45) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 7(38) X(38) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) BRADSHAW AAF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 21N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) X(32) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 14(31) X(31) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-23 22:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Jul 23 the center of Douglas was located near 14.1, -137.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 14
2020-07-23 22:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 137.3W ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. Watches could be issued on Friday for a portion of the area. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 137.3 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. On the forecast track Douglas will approach the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-07-23 22:42:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 232042 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 136.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 137.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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