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Hurricane Barry Graphics
2019-07-13 16:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 14:56:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 15:24:17 GMT
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Hurricane Barry Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-07-13 16:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131455 TCDAT2 Hurricane Barry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m. Doppler radar winds from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as well. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its less than classical appearance in satellite imagery. It should be noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in terms of the overall impacts from Barry. Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5. The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion should continue until the system dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance. Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. 3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 29.6N 92.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z 31.6N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0000Z 33.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 34.3N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z 37.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-13 16:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 14:55:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-13 16:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 14:55:16 GMT
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Hurricane Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-07-13 16:54:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 131454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 42 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BATON ROUGE LA 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 72 21(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 4 21(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 50 10(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) LAFAYETTE LA 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 66 8(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) NEW IBERIA LA 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 3 15(18) 13(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) FORT POLK LA 34 60 29(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) FORT POLK LA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 20 24(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) KOUNTZE TX 34 16 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 42 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GALVESTON TX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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