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Tropical Storm Barry Graphics
2019-07-14 10:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 08:41:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 09:24:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-14 10:40:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 08:40:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-14 10:40:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 08:40:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-07-14 10:39:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 174 WTNT42 KNHC 140839 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now located over western Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that the minimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data, but this intensity estimate could be a little generous. These lingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convective band over water and near the coast of Louisiana south and southeast of the center. The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, but smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt. The system is expected to turn northward later today toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and a north to north-northeast motion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days. The NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previous one, due to the initial position being further west than anticipated. Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it should become a tropical depression later today. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection and become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirely shortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation is still occurring along the coast of south-central Louisiana. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue along portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 31.4N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 35.2N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 36.7N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2019-07-14 10:39:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 140839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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