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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Graphics
2019-10-20 00:56:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 22:56:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 22:56:06 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-10-19 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192039 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12 hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon. Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data. The remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40 percent. The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2 kt. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net distance of 50-100 n mi during that period. A slight westward adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies along the western edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-10-19 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192039 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) 2(18) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave (EP3/EP182019)
2019-10-19 22:38:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Octave was located near 11.6, -125.7 with movement ENE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Public Advisory Number 9
2019-10-19 22:38:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...OCTAVE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 125.7W ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 125.7 West. Octave is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph. A slow and erratic motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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